Trump's Confusing Negotiation Strategies

March 8, 2025
Matthias Schranner
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Trump's negotiation strategies can be very confusing. His communication is bewildering, and the media amplifies this confusion. I don't believe that confusion is Trump's goal. He could increase his bargaining power if he communicated more clearly.

I aim to explain the strategy and provide some clarity. When we set aside all the hysteria and emotions, the following picture emerges:

1. The USA is negotiating directly with Russia about Ukraine in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The big advantage in this negotiation is that a negotiating mandate can be expanded. In addition to Ukraine, topics like Syria and Iran can also be discussed.

2. Ukraine is negotiating with the EU and a "coalition of the willing."

3. Ukraine and Russia should negotiate a ceasefire.

President Trump is involved in all areas, but in different roles and with different responsibilities.

1. The USA's negotiations with Russia regarding Ukraine are direct talks. Two teams face each other, negotiating a possible ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Trump is the decision-maker here, providing the mandate for the negotiations, setting the red lines, but not sitting directly at the table.

2. By at least temporarily withdrawing, the USA forces Ukraine to seek new partners. Trump has made these negotiations possible and could also quickly end them if he decides to offer further support for Ukraine.

3. The negotiation for a ceasefire is the most interesting. Trump does not act as a negotiator here but as a mediator. His goal is to force the opposing parties to the negotiating table.

Zelensky will only be willing to negotiate if the consequences of non-agreement—the outcome of the war—become worse than the consequences of agreement.

Putin will only be willing to negotiate if the consequences of non-agreement are worse than the consequences of agreement.

This means that non-agreement must be more painful than agreement at the negotiating table. Thus, Trump is forced to threaten BOTH sides and confront them with severe consequences of non-agreement.Trump needs to better explain his goals and strategies to reduce the confusion.