What's next?

From a negotiation perspective, there are three options:

• Do nothing and wait
• Increase the pressure
• Offer cooperation and re-establish a positive relationship

It is evident that “doing nothing” is not a viable option. The relationship between Trump and Zelensky would not be re-established, creating uncertainty about the future. The USA, EU, NATO, Ukraine, and other stakeholders would remain unsure about their next steps.

Increasing the pressure might work. Zelensky needs to stabilize the coalition with the EU, UK, Canada, and others, while also threatening the Trump administration. It's important to remember that Trump thrives on threats and power games. After issuing threats, Zelensky would need to impose sanctions against Trump, targeting his internal weaknesses, such as the coalition's refusal to buy American products. This would lead to a power struggle, sending a clear message to Trump that he has overestimated his power and that the coalition is willing to act against him.

Re-establishing the relationship behind closed doors seems to be the best option. This should not be a public event, like an EU summit, but rather prepared through back-channel negotiations. This strategy would only be effective if Trump is genuinely interested in re-establishing the relationship and supporting Ukraine.If he is not interested, we will end up in a power struggle.