Chancellor Scholz – Negotiation Guideline for Moscow
Dear Chancellor Scholz,
Please find below a short negotiation guide for your upcoming negotiations with Mr. Putin:
1. You are a negotiation partner – not a mediator. As a representative of a NATO member state, you must take NATO’s position, you may not act as a mediator. A mediating role would only be possible for a neutral partner, such as a body of the OSCE or a neutral country like Switzerland.
2. You must not de-escalate yet, that would be too early. Mr Putin will not order an invasion before the end of the Olympic Games in China. A war with Ukraine would distract from the Games which would be a loss of face for the Chinese president.
3. On February 21st – the first day after the Games – the Ukraine crisis will probably be decided. There will be final negotiations or an invasion then.
4. Just before the ultimate escalation, you need to have the possibility of de-escalation. You would have to negotiate this option at the meeting with Mr Putin. This is called a “last call” option and is the final opportunity to talk and negotiate before the invasion.
5. At the end of the final negotiation, the following three options should be on the table:
a. The “Austrian solution”, i.e. Ukraine signs a framework agreement but does not become a NATO member state (“Partnership for Peace”).
b. Ukraine becomes a NATO member state, but no NATO bases are established (similar to the Two Plus Four Agreement for the reunification of Germany)
c. Security guarantees for all participating countries will be put on record.
Best regards to Berlin,
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