The conflict between Israel and Hamas is now in Phase 9, but not for long.
For more information regarding Phase 9, please visit this link.
In Phase 9, calm returns. All options are weighed, and consideration is given to whether Phase 10—total escalation and uncontrollable war—is desirable.
The negotiations in Qatar on both a ceasefire in Gaza and the de-escalation of the regional situation ended yesterday (Friday, August 16). The negotiations are set to continue next week in Cairo.
The USA, Qatar, and Egypt are moderating the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. However, Hamas did not participate, and senior Hamas official Mahmud Mardaui expressed disappointment with the proposals. Iran was involved indirectly, with Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani assessing the results afterward. The conflict has escalated into a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran.
‘The talks so far have been serious, constructive and conducted in a positive atmosphere,’ according to the statement from the three moderating countries. ‘Technical teams’ are expected to work on outstanding implementation details in the coming days.
From a strategic negotiation perspective, the window of opportunity remains open, with a few days left to reach a ceasefire. However, if this window is not used, an uncontrollable escalation will follow.
The interesting question is how the consequences of this escalation will be interpreted. Does Israel believe that its Western partners will unconditionally support this war and a possible attack on Iran? Does Iran believe it can win this war with its ‘allies’ Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi? And has Iran, the ‘nuclear power in waiting’, as described by the Swiss newspaper NZZ, developed the nuclear bomb to the point where it provides a new dimension of deterrence?
There is no need for negotiation in Phase 9. The USA, Qatar, and Egypt must clarify and emphasize the interpretation of the consequences. It is important to provide a clear understanding of both the consequences and the finite nature of the ‘window of opportunity’.
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